What can Iran gain by having a nuclear weapons program that threatens Middle East security?

Thomas Galasz Nielsen

    Research output: Working Paper, Paper, Policy Brief, Brief, ImpactPolicy Briefs, Briefs and ImpactsResearch

    Abstract

    In this paper, Iran’s nuclear aspiration to destabilise power in the Middle East is analysed. Iran is purportedly attempting to develop a nuclear energy program, and perhaps even a nuclear weapons program, despite assurances of the opposite. An Iranian nuclear weapon would be a game changer in the region and a lot of neigh- bouring countries fear such a development for security reasons. But why is Iran following a nuclear path that may further destabilise the fragile security situation in the Middle East? It is to do with Iran’s own perception of security risks, its desire for greatness in the region, and domestic challenges, caused in part by United Nations’ sanctions, lack of development and internal political power struggles. Iran balances cleverly on the edge of either further international isolation or becoming a significant local power. It uses the threat of developing nuclear weapons, in combination with its important strategic location by the Strait of Hormuz, and supports various political groupings in and around Syria and Iraq to attract the attention of the United States of American in an attempt to become recognised as the most important player in the Middle East.
    Should Iran succeed in its brinkmanship and the outcome could be the lifting of the UN sanctions, international recognition, improved security, and even a possible end to internal political power struggles due to likely economic reforms post-sanctions. Much is at stake for Iran, but, if it succeeds, it could shift the political path in Iran to a less confrontational one, which, in the long run, could enhance security in the region. This would, however, be at the cost of recognising Iran as a true power in the Middle East and endingthe sanctions regime in order to support Iranian development.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationCopenhagen
    PublisherInstitut for Strategi, Forsvarsakademiet
    Number of pages20
    ISBN (Print)9788771471069
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    SeriesRDDC Brief

    Bibliographical note

    Registreret som policy brief

    Keywords

    • Iran
    • Nuclear
    • Middle East
    • Saudi Arabia
    • USA
    • Weapons of mass destruction

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