Walking a Thin Rope: The U.S.-Turkey Balancing Act is Becoming Increasingly Untenable

Following the arrest of a U.S. consular employee in Istanbul in early October, U.S. representations in Turkey suspended their non-immigrant visa services in the country. Within 24 hours Turkish representations in the United States reciprocated in kind. Since this visa spat began, many observers have asked whether the U.S.-Turkey relationship can be brought “back from the brink” this time. Some more experienced observers will nod grudgingly. Turkey is simply too geostrategically important for the United States to let it go, they argue. However dramatic things may appear now, U.S. administrations have consistently engaged in difficult balancing acts when it comes to ties with Turkey. So the history suggests.

But while the relationship might indeed be salvaged yet again, the underlying cracks are growing both deeper and wider. Key alignments and mutual domestic political interests that remained in place during the Cold War as well as the George W. Bush and Obama years — for instance on Russia, on Iran, and on the Kurds — are now all but entirely absent. Also, whereas a few years ago majority-Sunni Muslim Turkey was a staunch supporter of Sunni groups in the Middle East, it is arguably no longer a useful ally to help the United States avoid another dreaded round of Sunni exclusion in Iraq and Syria. Add to this the fact that Turkey seems to be engaging in the taking of U.S. hostages as bargaining chips and that America’s ability to maneuver the diplomatic back channels inside the increasingly anti-American Ankara beltway is becoming more tenuous.

Predictions are a difficult feat with Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the helm, but the U.S. balancing act with Turkey nonetheless seems to be growing increasingly untenable. Geopolitical factors that used to keep the always difficult balancing act on track are no longer in place. Combined with a steep rise in bilateral tensions and a shrill anti-Americanism in Turkey, these factors have rendered relations with Turkey increasingly difficult for the United States to maneuver.