The Paradox of Progress: How Multi-Party Democracy and Development Have Led to Growing Instability in Somaliland

Jethro Norman; Markus Virgil Hoehne

The Paradox of Progress: How Multi-Party Democracy and Development Have Led to Growing Instability in Somaliland

Jethro Norman
, Markus Virgil Hoehne

Research output: Other contribution › Internet Publication › Communication

Abstract

On 26 December 2025, Israel recognised Somaliland, the only state so far to do so. In the wake of this, the strategic and regional implications were discussed. We ask about the internal situation in which this recognition happened. In Hargeysa there were celebrations. But 400 km east, in Lasanod, the news landed very differently. Somaliland has not controlled Lasanod since August 2023, when a Dhulbahante-led uprising pushed its forces out of roughly a third of the de facto state’s territory. The paradox is that the foreign investment and diplomatic engagement which made recognition thinkable in the first place is also what shattered the polity it was supposed to consolidate.

Original language	English
Publication date	8 May 2026
Place of Publication	England
Publisher	Oxford School of Global and Area Studies
Publication status	Published - 8 May 2026

Keywords

Somaliland
Instability
Recognition

Access to Document

https://www.area-studies.ox.ac.uk/article/the-paradox-of-progress-how-multi-party-democracy-and-development-have-led-to-growing-instab

Beyond State Fragmentation: How Emerging Urban Centres Are Reshaping Political Order in Somalia
Norman, J. (PI), Ali, F. (CoI) & Hassan, A. (CoI)
01/01/2026 → 30/11/2026
Project: Research
Trade-Based Statecraft: The New Spatial Logic Of The State
Schouten, P. (PI), Norman, J. (CoI) & Thakur, S. (CoI)
01/11/2023 → 31/10/2026
Project: Research

Cite this

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N2 - On 26 December 2025, Israel recognised Somaliland, the only state so far to do so. In the wake of this, the strategic and regional implications were discussed. We ask about the internal situation in which this recognition happened. In Hargeysa there were celebrations. But 400 km east, in Lasanod, the news landed very differently. Somaliland has not controlled Lasanod since August 2023, when a Dhulbahante-led uprising pushed its forces out of roughly a third of the de facto state’s territory. The paradox is that the foreign investment and diplomatic engagement which made recognition thinkable in the first place is also what shattered the polity it was supposed to consolidate.

AB - On 26 December 2025, Israel recognised Somaliland, the only state so far to do so. In the wake of this, the strategic and regional implications were discussed. We ask about the internal situation in which this recognition happened. In Hargeysa there were celebrations. But 400 km east, in Lasanod, the news landed very differently. Somaliland has not controlled Lasanod since August 2023, when a Dhulbahante-led uprising pushed its forces out of roughly a third of the de facto state’s territory. The paradox is that the foreign investment and diplomatic engagement which made recognition thinkable in the first place is also what shattered the polity it was supposed to consolidate.

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The Paradox of Progress: How Multi-Party Democracy and Development Have Led to Growing Instability in Somaliland

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Projects

Beyond State Fragmentation: How Emerging Urban Centres Are Reshaping Political Order in Somalia

Trade-Based Statecraft: The New Spatial Logic Of The State

Cite this