The Evolution of the EU's and Turkey's Security Interests, Threat Perceptions and Discourse

The aim of this FEUTURE paper is threefold. First, it aims to present in outline the main dynamics that have characterized the security relations between Turkey and the EU since WWII, with a particular emphasis on the post-1999 period. Secondly, it identifies the main drivers that underpin the security manifestations of Turkey-EU relations. Thirdly, and on that footing, it presents the most likely of the three FEUTURE scenarios — conflict, cooperation, and convergence — in the field of security dynamics for the near future. In particular, the paper highlights both the centripetal and centrifugal forces that have marked and continue to mark the relationship. Also, global and regional dynamics and particularly the choices of the United States in the security sphere often drive the relationship even if domestic dynamics have seen a growing salience in the Post Crisis period.