Syria in transition: Mapping the local and transnational actors shaping politics in Syria

This report offers a field guide to the political and military actors shaping Syria’s transition. It examines how rival powers govern with competing political visions, from centralised control in Damascus to self-rule in the northeast and independent local orders in the south. Despite tensions, emerging signs of compromise point to a fragile shift from confrontation to conditional dialogue. Findings include that while violence persists, the contours of Syria’s future are increasingly shaped by formal negotiations and local governance arrangements. This suggests a shift from military stalemate towards political contestation. External powers are recalibrating strategies, recognising that influence now relies more on political engagement than military outcomes. Rather than offering policy prescriptions, the study identifies patterns of governance, negotiation, and contestation to support further analysis. This document is intended as a primer for laypeople, analysts and policy-makers seeking to understand Syria’s trajectory. All data is current as of 26 June 2025.