Steel and spirit: Why societal resilience and defence industry must move together

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has transformed the strategic calculus of NATO’s eastern and northern flanks, particularly in the Baltic Sea region. This analysis examines the emergence of a coherent arc of deterrence among eight NATO member states—Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and Germany—each recalibrating defence posture in response to renewed security threats. While territorial defence and military spending have rapidly expanded, the Comment argues that credible deterrence depends equally on two underappreciated pillars: societal resilience and defence industrial capacity. Civil preparedness remains uneven across the region, with countries like Finland setting benchmarks, while others race to close existing gaps. Simultaneously, Europe’s fragmented defence industrial base remains ill-equipped for sustained, high-intensity conflict, despite national efforts to scale production. Without integrated civil and industrial frameworks at the EU and NATO levels, the deterrent value of forward military deployments risks being undermined. The study concludes with policy recommendations to mainstream civil defence, accelerate industrial integration, and institutionalise burden-sharing across the Alliance.