Northern Horizon: Strengthening Security in the Baltic Sea Region

As a part of a two-volume series, this report provides a strategic assessment of Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany amid escalating geopolitical threats in the Baltic Sea region. It analyses how each country has recalibrated its defence posture—through adjustments to military spending, moderniSation, enhanced civil preparedness, and NATO integration—while leveraging distinct strategic advantages. Finland and Sweden, anchored in their ‘total defence’ traditions, have significantly enhanced military and societal resilience, marking a historic reconfiguration of regional security through NATO accession. Denmark has reinforced its Arctic and Baltic defences, prioritising rapid deployment capabilities and reinforcing transatlantic ties. Germany, under its Zeitenwende policy, is advancing military modernization despite persistent resource constraints and bureaucratic inertia. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine served as a watershed moment prompting all four countries to meet NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending benchmark, underscoring how acute threat perception has driven overdue investment and strategic adaptation. Despite this progress, enduring challenges persist—from readiness gaps and procurement delays to civil defence vulnerabilities. This report examines the recent development and challenges and highlights the importance of regional cooperation, NATO interoperability, and sustainable defence strategies to ensure long-term stability in the region.