From Devolution to Distortion: Political and Fiscal Constraints on Locally Led Adaptation in Kenya

Locally led adaptation is a central goal of global climate policy, yet adaptation finance remains largely centralized. This article examines why this tension persists by analysing how fiscal decentralization shapes subnational access to climate adaptation finance in Kenya. Drawing on a qualitative comparative analysis of six Kenyan counties – Busia, Garissa, Kisumu, Makueni, Mombasa and Nairobi – the study uses key informant interviews, budget analysis and policy document review to examine how fiscal rules and financing arrangements shape subnational adaptation action. It shows that while counties face climate risks directly and integrate adaptation into routine service delivery, they operate within financial systems that limit timely and flexible responses. Responsibility has been devolved, but fiscal authority has not. Using fiscal decentralization and political economy perspectives, the analysis demonstrates how centralized borrowing rules, conditional transfers and nationally mediated international climate finance constrain local action, including under programmes explicitly designed to support localization. These constraints reflect structural features of intergovernmental finance and climate finance architecture rather than weak local commitment. The article argues that while the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) does not organize domestic fiscal systems, its finance negotiations shape the principles, scale, and delivery expectations of adaptation finance. Achieving locally led adaptation therefore requires not only increased finance, but financing arrangements that support countries to align fiscal authority, risk management, and decision-making power with the subnational governments closest to climate impacts.

Key policy insights
Locally led adaptation requires local control over finance. Assigning climate responsibilities to subnational governments without authority over funding limits timely and effective adaptation.

How finance is delivered matters as much as the amount delivered. Unpredictable, conditional and delayed funding undermines local adaptation even where planning systems are strong.

As adaptation finance scales up under the New Collective Quantified Goal, governance reform is needed to ensure that resources reach subnational governments and communities facing climate impacts.