China-MENA Relations in a Changing World Order and Green Transition

China's economic and diplomatic relations with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have significantly increased over the past two decades. This relationship extends beyond trade in oil and gas to include a wide range of initiatives and projects in infrastructure, defense, technology, and green transition. China's involvement in the region is driven by its need to secure energy supplies and expand its economic influence. Also, the Middle East is strategically a very important region in China’s westward strategy in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The relationship is expected to continue growing beyond 2040, despite the anticipated decline in global demand for hydrocarbon energy. The most significant factor that could alter this trajectory is the policy of the United States, particularly its efforts to re-align Middle Eastern states more closely with itself. However, the Middle Eastern states are increasingly balancing their relations with the USA by developing deeper cooperation with China. China's approach to international diplomacy in the region prioritizes partnership and multilateral cooperation, contrasting with the US's alliance-based strategy. China's energy relations with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have been a cornerstone of their bilateral ties. Despite a recent decline in the share of crude oil imports from MENA due to China's preference for discounted Russian oil and its energy diversification strategy, the region remains crucial to China's energy security. Additionally, their energy relations are extending beyond simple trade to cooperation throughout the petrochemical value chain.