Beyond State Fragmentation: How Emerging Urban Centres Are Reshaping Political Order in Somalia

This research examines how four urban centres in Somalia - Garowe (ascendant), Baidoa (declining), Las Anod (emergent), and Kismayo (consolidated) - exercise governance through controlling movement, verification, and extraction at key chokepoints, rather than through territorial monopolies of violence. These cities function as quasi-sovereign entities competing with Mogadishu and each other, reshaping Somali political order. Using comparative fieldwork, geospatial analysis, and policy engagement, the project investigates how port access, diaspora networks, and external patronage enable some centres to ascend, emerge, or consolidate authority while others decline. The research identifies leverage points for international actors to support governance coordination without reinforcing extractive dynamics or destabilising inter-centre competition.