Turkey in European Identity Politics: Key Drivers and Future Scenarios

This paper presents a trends survey of identity-related primarily European representations of Turkey (but also vice versa) in the 1999-2017 timeframe with a view to identifying the most salient, pertinent, and durable drivers likely to obtain and drive the relations between Turkey and the EU into 2023. It identifies four key drivers underpinning European representations of Turkey, three drivers underpinning Turkish representations of Europe and one shared driver that collectively reveal the underlying dynamics of identity-related representations of each other, a both pivotal and often controversial aspect of EU-Turkey relations. In conclusion, the paper unfolds the nature of the likely scenario of a ‘conflictual orientation’ in 2023, and adds some initial recommendations for decision makers and stakeholders to address this often both sensitive and elusive aspect of EU-Turkey relations.