The political economy of energy transitions in Africa: Coalitions, politics and power in Tanzania

The understanding of the political economy of energy transitions in lower-income African countries is little developed. A focus on coalitions has emerged as a promising approach, but it was largely developed based on experiences from higher-income countries. This article has two interrelated purposes. First, it explores and develops the coalition approach to the study of the prioritisation between energy sources in lower-income countries by combining it with a political settlement framework that has been adapted to analysing energy transitions. Secondly, it researches the promotion and implementation of non-hydro renewable energy in mainland Tanzania as a case. The article covers the period from 2008, when the first potent coalitions around private non-hydro renewable energy emerged, up until today. Until recently, these coalitions were overtaken by stronger coalitions around state-owned gas and hydropower. Only with a new president and administration in power and a donor that was pragmatic with regard to state ownership did a large-scale solar plant materialize. Based on the Tanzanian example, the article argues first, that large-scale energy projects are of such importance politically that the analysis of coalitions at the sector level must take into account how these coalitions are embedded in a country's broader distribution of power. Secondly, that for renewable energy policies and projects to get implemented they must fit with the priorities and ideas about broader development held by a country's ruling political elite. A number of implications for the study of the political economy of energy transitions are further unfolded in the article.