The Paradox of Progress: How Multi-Party Democracy and Development Have Led to Growing Instability in Somaliland

On 26 December 2025, Israel recognised Somaliland, the only state so far to do so. In the wake of this, the strategic and regional implications were discussed. We ask about the internal situation in which this recognition happened. In Hargeysa there were celebrations. But 400 km east, in Lasanod, the news landed very differently. Somaliland has not controlled Lasanod since August 2023, when a Dhulbahante-led uprising pushed its forces out of roughly a third of the de facto state’s territory. The paradox is that the foreign investment and diplomatic engagement which made recognition thinkable in the first place is also what shattered the polity it was supposed to consolidate.