The Nordics and Russia before and after Maidan: Reflections on the 'iron law' of European Russia-profiles

Nordic reactions to the uprising at Maidan Square in Kyiv 2014 and its aftermath were driven by each country’s geopolitical profile towards Russia. On this basis, the paper analyses convergences and divergences in Nordic countries’ relations with Russia since the Cold War. It then reflects on the main determinants behind European states’ Russia policies: (1) their location in relation to Russia and (2) their historical experiences with Russia. Since these determinants are ultrastable, the hawks remain hawks and the doves remain doves, and some stay in-between. Of course, perceived common danger promotes cohesion, as was illustrated by the immediate effects of Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022. Doves became tougher and hawks became superhawks, and the continuum from hawks to doves was compressed for some time. Nonetheless, states did not switch positions on the continuum from hawks to doves. The paper suggests that this rule, at the more general level, almost reflects an ‘iron law’ with very few exceptions.