Failed Transnationalization? The Challenges Faced by al-Qaeda and IS in South Asia

What factors hinder al-Qaeda’s and IS’s ability to enter new conflict settings? Analyzing existing databases across three types of organized violence, I show that in South Asia, outside of Afghanistan and Pakistan, levels of violence associated with these organizations have remained lower than in other world regions. In the case of IS, the group’s anti-Deobandi stance has reduced its pool of affiliation partners. Moreover, the availability of other support channels has limited local groups’ demand for support from al-Qaeda and IS. Lastly, higher levels of democracy have allowed for the formation of political parties, which have targeted similar population segments as al-Qaeda and IS.